We tracked TPG’s data-backed valuations across four snapshots from 2021–2026, cross-referenced with NerdWallet, View from the Wing, and LendingTree. The data shows most airline mile values are flat or up — not down.
The short answer: no, most airline miles are not worth less in 2026. Based on TPG’s data-backed valuations tracked across four snapshots from May 2024 to March 2026, American AAdvantage miles are worth 14% more than their pre-2021 baseline, United MileagePlus is up 8%, and Delta SkyMiles is up 9%. NerdWallet independently confirmed that airline mile values have increased for every major program except Southwest since 2020.
That said, “devaluation” has become the default word for any change to an airline loyalty program — and the structural changes of the past decade are real. Award charts have been eliminated, dynamic pricing is now universal, and specific high-value sweet spots have disappeared. But when you measure what airline miles are actually worth in cents-per-point across multiple independent sources, the data tells a more nuanced story.
TPG switched from editorial opinion to a data-backed methodology in late 2021, analyzing tens of thousands of real award and cash bookings. Before the switch, their editorial valuations were: American 1.4¢, Delta 1.1¢, United 1.3¢. Here’s how airline mile values have changed since:
Cents per point across four snapshots · Pre-2021 values are editorial estimates
| Airline | Pre-2021 | May ’24 | Jan ’25 | Jul ’25 | Mar ’26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American | 1.40¢ | 1.60¢ | 1.65¢ | 1.55¢ | 1.60¢ | +14% |
| Alaska | — | 1.60¢ | 1.45¢ | 1.50¢ | 1.70¢ | ↑ |
| United | 1.30¢ | 1.35¢ | 1.35¢ | 1.30¢ | 1.40¢ | +8% |
| Southwest | — | 1.35¢ | 1.35¢ | 1.40¢ | 1.40¢ | → |
| JetBlue | — | 1.35¢ | 1.30¢ | 1.45¢ | 1.30¢ | → |
| Delta | 1.10¢ | 1.15¢ | 1.20¢ | 1.15¢ | 1.20¢ | +9% |
No single source should be gospel. Here’s how four independent outlets compare on current valuations:
Cents per point · Sorted by cross-source average
| Airline | TPG | VFTW | LendingTree | Avg | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 1.70¢ | 1.60¢ | 1.80¢ | 1.70¢ | |
| American | 1.60¢ | 1.40¢ | 1.20¢ | 1.40¢ | |
| United | 1.40¢ | 1.40¢ | 1.10¢ | 1.30¢ | |
| Southwest | 1.40¢ | 1.30¢ | 1.20¢ | 1.30¢ | |
| JetBlue | 1.30¢ | 1.30¢ | 1.30¢ | 1.30¢ | |
| Delta | 1.20¢ | 1.10¢ | 1.10¢ | 1.13¢ |
Because the structural changes are real, even if average CPP hasn’t collapsed. The frustration is legitimate — it just isn’t about average cent-per-point values declining across the board.
Sweet spots died. When Delta charged 330,000 SkyMiles for a business class partner award that used to cost 120,000, that’s a massive devaluation for the person trying to book that specific flight. But it doesn’t mean the average Delta redemption got worse — dynamic pricing creates both winners and losers on any given day.
Predictability vanished. Fixed award charts told you exactly what a flight would cost in miles. Dynamic pricing means the same route might cost 25,000 miles one day and 80,000 the next. The loss of predictability feels like devaluation even when the average is stable.
The best deals require more work. In the fixed-chart era, anyone could find the published rate. Dynamic pricing rewards flexibility, off-peak travel, and tools like Google Flights or AwardFares. The average value may be fine, but the floor for bad redemptions dropped significantly.
In 2023, the top 10 airline loyalty programs generated $32.2 billion in revenue, up 18.6% from 2022, according to IdeaWorksCompany’s 2024 CarTrawler Yearbook. For context, IATA estimated the entire global airline industry generated $23.3 billion in profit that same year. These programs aren’t a side benefit — they’re the business model.
Airlines sell miles to credit card banks at roughly 1.5–2.0¢ per mile, then control what those miles can buy. The higher the sale price and the lower the redemption value, the wider the margin. This is why devaluation pressure is constant, even if actual average values have held up better than expected.
Compare pre-2021 editorial value vs. current TPG data-backed value
The points-and-miles world has changed dramatically since 2015, and not all changes favor consumers. Award charts are gone, predictability is lower, and the worst-case redemption is much worse than it used to be. The DOT investigation is warranted.
But the narrative that airlines have systematically destroyed the value of your miles doesn’t hold up to scrutiny when measured by average cents-per-point. For most major US programs, the data shows values that are flat or modestly higher than a few years ago. The real loss isn’t in average value — it’s in certainty, transparency, and the death of specific sweet spots that made this hobby so rewarding.
The practical advice hasn’t changed: redeem regularly, calculate your CPP, focus on partner charts that still offer outsized value (especially American’s), and use transferable currencies to hedge against any single program’s changes.
Based on TPG’s data-backed valuations tracked across four snapshots (May 2024–March 2026), most major US airline mile programs show flat or increased values. American AAdvantage miles are up 14% vs. pre-2021 levels, United MileagePlus up 8%, and Delta SkyMiles up 9%. However, the loss of fixed award charts and the shift to dynamic pricing means individual redemptions can vary widely, and some specific routes and cabins have seen significant price increases.
As of March 2026, cross-source averages show: Alaska Mileage Plan at 1.70¢, American AAdvantage at 1.40¢, United MileagePlus at 1.30¢, Southwest Rapid Rewards at 1.30¢, JetBlue TrueBlue at 1.30¢, and Delta SkyMiles at 1.13¢ per point. These averages are based on valuations from TPG, View from the Wing, and LendingTree.
Alaska Mileage Plan miles are worth the most at an average of 1.70 cents per point across three independent sources. American AAdvantage ranks second at 1.40 cents per point. Delta SkyMiles consistently rank lowest among the major US programs at 1.10–1.20 cents per point, though they’ve also shown modest improvement since 2021.
The devaluation narrative persists because structural changes are real: all major US carriers have eliminated fixed award charts, dynamic pricing creates unpredictable costs, and specific high-value sweet spots have been removed. A Delta business class partner award that once cost 120,000 miles can now price at 330,000. These changes make miles feel less valuable even when average cents-per-point valuations remain stable.
TPG valuations tracked across four data-backed snapshots (May 2024, January 2025, July 2025, March 2026) plus their pre-2021 editorial baselines. Pre-2021 figures referenced via View from the Wing’s reporting on the methodology switch. Cross-reference sources include Gary Leff’s View from the Wing (indifference-price methodology), LendingTree (itinerary-based analysis), and NerdWallet (data-driven analysis). Revenue data from IdeaWorksCompany’s 2024 CarTrawler Yearbook. DOT details from official USDOT releases. Affiliate revenue context from Digiday’s reporting on TPG’s business model.